MODEL-BASED ESTIMATE

Price Probability Calculator

Compare modeled ending-price probabilities and touch scenarios over a selected time horizon.

Underlying

Time & rates

The date and local time determine the remaining duration. Clear the date to enter days, hours, and minutes manually.

Time to expiration
Days, hours, and minutes are converted to a year fraction.

Volatility & dividends

Dividend assumption
Choose either an ongoing yield or recurring cash payments; the model does not count both. A next payment date is required when the amount is above 0.

Target prices

Leave blank to evaluate a single target.

Scenarios at expiration

25,000

30 days

Below the lower target

19.4%

Between the targets

54.2%

Above the upper target

26.3%

Target range: 24,250 – 25,750

Probability of touching

P1

41.3%

P2

49.7%

Both

N/A

Either

N/A

Neither

N/A

When targets sit on opposite sides of the current price, Both / Either / Neither are shown as N/A because this model does not determine their joint touch probability exactly.

Modeled price distribution

1σ: 24,115.75 – 26,131.42

Modeled 1σ range at expiration

Modeled price distributionThe curve shows the modeled ending-price distribution. Vertical markers identify the current price and entered targets.P1P2-3σ · 22,255.55+3σ · 28,315.58
Current priceP1 · 24,250P2 · 25,750Below the lower targetBetween the targetsAbove the upper target

Standard-deviation price levels

-3σ

22,255.55

-2σ

23,166.99

-1σ

24,115.75

+1σ

26,131.42

+2σ

27,201.59

+3σ

28,315.58

On /in the calculator fetches no quotes: enter the level of the underlying yourself. Indian index options expire at the 15:30 close: on Tuesday for NSE contracts and on Thursday for BSE contracts.

The probabilities come from a lognormal model at constant implied volatility. They are estimates for education, not forecasts of where any index will trade.

As of 2026-11-02. Source: Index lot sizes: NSE circular NSE/FAOP/70616 and BSE notices