At 6:30 AM ET today, the US Department of Labor releases the Nonfarm Payrolls — the most important labor market data in the world. Analysts expect 87,500 new jobs in July.
Why This Number Decides Everything Today
The jobs number shows whether the US economy is still growing or already slowing. In June, only 57,000 jobs were created — the weakest month in four months. If today's number comes in low again (below 80,000), investors think: The economy is weakening. Tech stocks are overpriced. Then they sell.
But if the number comes in strong (above 90,000), everyone breathes a sigh of relief: The economy is still running. Tech stocks can keep rising.
This morning, markets are nervous. Asia recovered yesterday — Nikkei +3%, Korea +3.4%. Europe starts cautiously positive. But everyone is waiting for 6:30 AM ET.
What This Means for Your Money
If you own ETFs on the S&P 500 or the DAX, this number directly affects you. A weak jobs number pushes both indices down because investors fear a recession. A strong number pushes them up.
Many professional investors have already rotated out of tech stocks into more defensive sectors (banks, commodities) in recent weeks — precisely because of this uncertainty. They don't want to be caught if the numbers are bad.
How Pros Are Reacting Today
Hedge funds have bought massive hedges in recent days — you can see it in the Put/Call ratio, which is above 1.2. That means: They're betting on price declines if the jobs number disappoints.
At the same time, there are investors betting on a surprise: If the number comes in above 90,000, tech stocks like Palantir, NVIDIA, or AMD could immediately jump several percent.
First Steps for Beginners
If you're just starting to learn about markets: The jobs report is the number every professional trader knows. It comes out every first Friday of the month at 6:30 AM ET. You can watch markets react in real time — within seconds.
My recommendation: Watch what happens today. But don't panic sell if the market briefly drops. Long-term wealth is built over years, not over individual days.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.