Wednesday, 10 PM Central European Time. Jensen Huang takes the stage, presents NVIDIA's quarterly numbers — and three trillion dollars in market capitalization hang in the balance. Not just at NVIDIA. At Microsoft, Apple, Amazon. At every company betting on artificial intelligence.
The whole world is watching.
The Story Behind It
NVIDIA has surged 19 percent in two weeks. That sounds like hype — but the numbers are real. Analysts expect $92 billion in revenue for Q2 2026, nearly double the prior year. Gross margin is projected to rise to 75 percent.
The company builds the chips that make artificial intelligence possible. Every major tech company — from OpenAI to Meta — buys these chips. The waiting list is a year long. The order book for 2026 and 2027 sits at one trillion dollars.
If NVIDIA delivers on Wednesday, the entire tech sector rises. If the numbers disappoint, it falls. The math is that simple.
What This Means for You
If you own an S&P 500 or MSCI World ETF, NVIDIA is in it. Very likely in the top ten holdings. Wednesday's earnings will decide whether your portfolio ends the week green or red.
This isn't speculation. NVIDIA now has so much market weight that a 5 percent move in the stock shifts the entire index. The same principle as Deutsche Telekom in 2000 — except NVIDIA actually makes profits.
Anyone who bought NVIDIA five years ago has seen their money grow tenfold. Two years ago, tripled. The question is: does it continue, or is a correction coming?
How the Pros Are Reacting
Professionals have been buying NVIDIA shares aggressively over the past two weeks — you can see it in the trading volume. At the same time, they're buying protection in case the numbers disappoint. That's called hedging — insurance against losses.
The expectation is clear: NVIDIA will beat estimates, as it has for the past ten quarters. But if the guidance for next quarter comes in weaker than expected, the market will sell. That's what happened with Tesla in July. Good numbers, weak guidance — and the stock fell anyway.
That's the risk with stocks "priced for perfection": even good news sometimes isn't enough.
First Steps for Beginners
If you're new and wondering whether to buy NVIDIA now: the honest answer is nobody knows what will happen Wednesday. Not even the pros. They're just betting with different probabilities.
What I've learned over twenty years: timing is nearly impossible. Anyone who bought Deutsche Telekom at 100 euros in 2000 (I was one of them) watched it fall to 8 euros. Those who simply invested in a broad ETF would be much further ahead today.
My advice: if you invest in individual stocks, do it with money you can afford to lose. And if you want to stay in the game long-term, build a solid foundation — an ETF that doesn't depend on a single company.
The exciting stories are rarely the best investments. But they're fun to watch — and that's exactly what we'll do on Wednesday.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.