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marketsAugust 25, 20263 min read

NVIDIA Earnings Aug 26: Beat Turns Sell-Off — 57% Crash Risk

57% of hedge funds expect a crash despite NVIDIA's likely earnings beat. That's the largest mismatch between expectations and market reality in 8 months.

Daniel Berg
Daniel Berg·Editor-in-Chief

NVIDIA Earnings: When a Beat Doesn't Mean What You Think

Tomorrow evening at 22:30 CET, NVIDIA reports quarterly results. Prediction markets say: 96% chance of an earnings beat. That sounds great — until you realize 57% of major hedge funds are betting on a crash anyway.

This is not normal. Usually, beat = stock goes up. But here the opposite happens. Why?

The Story Behind It: Too Much Hype, Not Enough Surprise

NVIDIA has rallied 95% in the last 8 months. Q1 delivered $82 billion in revenue, +85% growth. Q2 is expected at $91 billion. This is already baked into the stock price — to the penny.

Tomorrow, NVIDIA will probably deliver. Numbers could even beat expectations. BUT: What's the excuse to fall afterward? If $91B is already known to everyone, if 95% growth is no secret — who buys?

That's called "priced in." The stock is already up before the good news arrives.

What This Means for Your Money

If you have €10,000 in NVDA shares or a tech ETF, here's what might happen tomorrow:

Scenario A (30% chance): Beat + solid guidance = rally. NVDA jumps 5-8%, tech ETFs +2-3%. Your portfolio smiles.

Scenario B (70% chance): Beat + but "not surprising enough" = selling begins. NVDA falls 3-7%. Your portfolio shrinks by €200-400 the next day.

History shows: Mega-caps like NVDA often fall despite good numbers when the market expected an even bigger surprise.

How Professionals React

Hedge funds and market makers are already preparing. They're buying cheap puts (bets on stock decline) on NVDA for tomorrow night. The signal is clear: "We expect chaos, no matter how the numbers are."

This isn't fear — it's caution. Professionals know: A beat doesn't automatically mean "stock goes up." It means: "Expectations were met. Now we're looking for a reason to sell."

First Steps for Beginners

If you've never handled earnings moves, here's the right mindset:

  1. Don't trade. Earnings nights are like gambling — the pros know the rules better than you do.
  2. If you already have money in tech: Don't panic sell. A 3-5% move tomorrow is normal. Your 10-year plan won't be destroyed.
  3. Check again on Thursday (Aug 27). Often the first shock is over, and you see more clearly what happened.

I (Daniel) was in the same panic at age 20 with Telekom stock. Hoped for every beat, panicked at every crash. Today I know: The long-term winners were always those who stayed calm. Stay calm. Stay focused.

Note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sources

BeInOptions Research

Frequently Asked Questions

Why could NVIDIA fall despite an earnings beat?

Because the beat is already priced into the stock. If the market already knows $91B revenue and 95% growth, "delivering exactly those numbers" is no surprise. The market then needs a new reason to buy — or finds one to sell.

What does the 57% crash probability from hedge funds mean?

That's unusual. Normally hedge funds buy calls (bets on price increase) for earnings. This time they're buying puts (bets on price decline). That's a warning signal: Even large pros don't trust the beat to push the price up.

Should I sell my NVDA shares before tomorrow?

No — unless you need the money short-term. Earnings volatility is normal. If you hold NVDA for 5-10 years, a 3-5% move tomorrow doesn't matter for your end result.

Key Options Terms

A quick refresher on the terms that keep coming up in options stories like this one.

Implied Volatility (IV)
The volatility the market expects. Rising IV makes options more expensive; falling IV makes them cheaper. IV guide →
The Greeks
Delta, Gamma, Theta and Vega measure how an option reacts to price, time and volatility. Greeks explained →
Open Interest
The number of open contracts. Heavy open interest at a strike flags an important price level. Read the chain →
Premium
The price of an option. Sellers collect it; buyers pay it for the right to trade. Basics →
Exercise & Assignment
What happens at expiration when an in-the-money option is actually settled. Learn more →
Defined Risk
Strategies such as spreads where the maximum loss is known from the outset. Strategies →

Options & the News – Quick Answers

How do stories like this move option prices?

News mostly works through expected movement: when uncertainty rises, so does implied volatility and therefore premium – often regardless of direction.

Do I have to bet on direction to benefit?

No. Defined-risk strategies such as the iron condor or a covered call trade volatility and time value rather than an exact direction.

I am a beginner – where should I start?

Start with our beginners guide and the glossary before putting real capital to work.

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Daniel Berg

Author

Daniel Berg

Editor-in-Chief

Options Educator

20++ Years

Daniel Berg is an ordinary guy from a mid-sized German city. He spent over twenty years in sales at a mid-cap machinery company – finance was never his profession, it was his expensive lesson. In 2000 he put his first savings into Deutsche Telekom's "people's share", buying near €100 and watching it fall to €8. He burned more money on the Neuer Markt afterwards. Only in his mid-thirties did he start the boring, patient way – broad ETFs, patience, no hot tips. At BeInOptions, Daniel passes on exactly that lesson: no miracle returns, just plain-spoken education about options, risk and long-term investing. "I don't sell dreams. I explain the tools – and the mistakes I made myself."

Expertise:Long-Term InvestingOptions EducationRisk AwarenessETF PortfoliosBehavioral Finance
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.