The Flight to Gold
When the world's smartest investors suddenly buy gold, there's a reason. And that reason is rarely good for stocks.
On Monday, gold reached a new all-time high of $4,500 per ounce. That's a gain of over 70% since the start of 2025. Silver followed the trend, climbing above $69 — a gain of more than 140% in the same period.
Daniel Berg's take: "My buddy Kalle asked me yesterday if he should buy gold now — at an all-time high. I told him: 'Kalle, you always buy when everyone's buying, and sell when everyone's selling. That's exactly the mistake I made 26 years ago with Deutsche Telekom stock.' Gold isn't a trade. Gold is insurance. When you need it, it's too late to buy it."
What the Pros See
Why are the pros fleeing into gold right now? Three reasons:
1. Central banks are buying like crazy. In the third quarter of 2025, central banks worldwide bought 220 tonnes of gold — 28% more than the previous quarter. This isn't a coincidence. Countries like China, India, and Russia are diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar. When a country's central banks have less confidence in the dollar, that's a signal.
2. Markets expect rate cuts. The VIX (the "fear gauge" of the stock market) sits at 14.6 — historically low. But that's exactly the problem: when everyone's relaxed, the opposite is often true. The Fed is expected to cut rates to prevent a recession. Lower rates make gold more attractive because it doesn't pay interest — when bonds pay nothing either, gold suddenly becomes interesting.
3. Geopolitical tensions. Conflicts in the Middle East, trade wars, political uncertainty in Europe and the US — all of this drives investors into safe havens. Gold is the classic safe haven when the world gets uncertain.
What This Means for You
If you have €10,000 in a DAX ETF and the market falls 10%, you lose €1,000. On paper. But those who hold gold can cushion these losses — gold often rises when stocks fall.
But beware: Buying gold at an all-time high is like taking out insurance when your house is already on fire. The pros built their gold positions months ago, not now. If you buy now, you're paying the highest price and hoping it goes even higher. That's speculation, not hedging.
History shows: Only eight times has gold gained 70%+ this fast. Every time, a stock market crash or severe recession followed (2008, March 2020, 1980). The correlation isn't perfect, but strong enough that the pros are paying attention.
What the Pros Are Doing Now
Instead of blindly running into gold, experienced investors are doing three things:
- Portfolio check: Do they have enough diversification? Anyone 100% in tech stocks is vulnerable.
- Emergency fund check: Six months' salary in a savings account, before anything else. I always preach this.
- Think long-term: Those who want to be rich in 20 years hold on now, don't panic-sell, and maybe even buy more — but only with money they can spare.
Daniel's closing: "Sabine always says: 'When everyone's buying gold, we should look at the people who already have it.' She's right. The pros built their positions months ago. We regular folks shouldn't chase — we should stay calm. Stay calm. Stay the course."
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.