Tomorrow at 14:30 CET comes the most important number of the week — inflation

Why does the stock market sometimes move violently on data you don't understand? Tomorrow is one of those days. At exactly 14:30 our time (8:30 AM New York), the U.S. Labor Department releases consumer inflation data for July — just one number, a few decimal places, and professionals prepare for it like a war.

Why should you care?

Because this single number determines whether the Federal Reserve can soon lower interest rates — and that resets thousands of investment decisions overnight.

Here are the expected figures:

• Overall inflation: +3.0% year-over-year (previously: +3.5%) — that would be a decline.
• Monthly: +0.1% expected (previously: -0.4%) — so ticking up slightly again.
• Core inflation (excluding food & oil): +2.5% expected.

It sounds technical, but it's simple: the lower the number, the sooner the Fed can say "inflation is finally falling — we can stop keeping rates this high."

What happens tomorrow at 14:30?

Scenario A: CPI comes in lower than expected

If the number beats 3.0% → Professionals think: "The Fed will cut rates." → Cheap money returns → Tech stocks (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT) explode, because tech thrives on low rates. Your ETF portfolio could be +2% tomorrow.

Scenario B: CPI holds or rises

If the number misses 3.0% → Professionals think: "Inflation isn't defeated, the Fed stays tough." → Borrowing gets more expensive → Crash scenario, DAX and S&P fall 2–3%, gold and bonds rise (people panic into safety). Your portfolio could be -2% tomorrow.

What are the pros doing right now?

Here's the interesting part: Large investors are meeting today and building positions — they're betting on A or B. Some go long tech (expecting A), others buy protection with gold or puts (expecting B). The tension is enormous.

What can you do?

You don't need to trade tomorrow. Pros do it because they have to — it's their job. Your job is simpler: prepare mentally. If tomorrow your portfolio swings 2–3%, that's not your signal to panic-sell. That's completely normal.

My approach (not advice, just what I do): If the data is bad and markets fall, see it as a discount — your monthly ETF purchase will get cheaper shares tomorrow. If it's good and markets explode, congratulate yourself for being invested long-term.

That's the secret: while traders panic, you save methodically.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.