Apple Event Over — And the Stock Fell
Last night Apple unveiled its new iPhone. The iPhone Duo (the first foldable iPhone for over $2,000), the iPhone 18 Pro, new AirPods. An 80-minute presentation.
And the stock? It fell. From $315 to $313. During the entire presentation.
This is not new. At almost every Apple event in recent years, the same thing happens: big event, lots of hype, stock falls. Why? Because pros buy weeks in advance — and during the event they sell.
Analysts at KeyBanc said it beforehand: "The event is likely a negative catalyst for shares." And that's exactly what happened.
Today Comes the Most Important Number of the Week
But today nobody cares about Apple anymore. Today at 2:30 PM ET comes US Jobless Claims — the weekly unemployment number.
Why does this matter? Because the Fed decides on rates on September 16. And today's number is the last major labor market info before that decision.
Expected: 205,000 new claims. Last week it was 206,000.
If the number is LOWER (e.g., 200,000 or less): That means the labor market is strong, the Fed might NOT need to cut rates so quickly. Stocks could fall because higher rates stay longer.
If the number is HIGHER (e.g., 210,000 or more): That means the labor market is weakening, the Fed could cut rates faster. Stocks could rise because cheaper money is coming.
Pros have been sitting in front of screens since 2 PM ET waiting.
What This Means for You
If you're investing in an ETF or holding tech stocks: this afternoon will be exciting. The number at 2:30 PM can push the entire market in one direction.
Daniel (that's me) is watching this live today. My world ETF stays put anyway — I'm not selling. But I want to understand which direction the Fed is headed next week.
By the way, oil also fell this morning — from $96 to $93. Reason: the US and Iran paused their attacks. Less war = lower oil prices. That's good for inflation, but bad for energy stocks.
What Pros Are Doing Now
Pros already started adjusting their positions yesterday. S&P 500 futures are slightly down this morning (−0.4%). DAX futures too (−0.66%).
They're waiting for 2:30 PM. And then they react in seconds.
If you're investing long-term, you can stay calm. If you're trading short-term, you should be very attentive this afternoon.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.