At 02:59 CET, US markets roar back to life. Memorial Day is over, and the futures make one thing clear: the break didn't calm anyone down. While American traders fired up their grills on Monday, Asian funds bought NASDAQ call options worth $4.2 billion — the largest single-day volume in three weeks.
What Happened on Monday
Japan's Nikkei 225 closed at 59,804 points after an intraday high of 65,017 — just 2.3% below the psychologically critical 65,000 mark. The rally wasn't random: oil dropped from $108 to $103 per barrel (WTI) after Iran confirmed peace talks with the US. That relieved pressure on energy imports and lifted Japanese export stocks like Toyota (+2.8%) and Sony (+3.1%).
In Europe, futures stayed cautious. DAX futures traded at 25,620 (+0.7%), CAC-40 at 8,442 (+0.4%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slipped 0.6% to 25,651 — Chinese tech stocks suffered under new US export controls on AI chips.
US futures show green: S&P 500 at 7,556 (+0.88%), NASDAQ at 21,340 (+1.1%). No surprise — while the exchange was closed, calls exploded.
The Options Side
The most interesting data point comes from Singapore. Between 09:00 and 16:00 local time (03:00–10:00 CET), institutional traders bought 184,000 QQQ call options with strike 485 and June 6 expiry — equivalent to 18.4 million shares of exposure worth $4.2 billion.
This isn't retail gambling. Average order size: 1,200 contracts. The pattern is clear: large funds used the US break to position for the week when NVIDIA (May 29) and Salesforce (May 28) report earnings.
Implied volatility (IV) on NASDAQ calls jumped from 22% to 28% — a clear signal that smart money expects a big move. Meanwhile, the SPY put/call ratio dropped from 0.87 to 0.74. Translation: hedges are being sold, upside is being bought.
On DAX options, the picture is mixed. The 25,500 strike holds the most open interest (12,400 contracts), followed by 26,000 (9,100 contracts). IV remains at 18% — European traders are waiting for US impulses.
What Traders Watch Now
The first hour after US open will be decisive. If the S&P holds the 7,550 mark, market makers will be forced to buy stocks (positive gamma hedging). If it drops below, the flow reverses — and the Asian calls lose value fast.
Key levels:
- S&P 500: Support 7,490 (Friday low), resistance 7,580 (Monday futures high)
- DAX: Support 25,400, resistance 25,800
- VIX: At 16.8 — above 17.5 gets chaotic
Wednesday brings Salesforce earnings after US close, Thursday NVIDIA. Both have call/put ratios above 4:1. If the numbers disappoint, it gets brutal — not just for the stocks, but for the entire tech sector.
The question isn't whether it moves. The question is: which direction does it explode?
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.