Two days ago, a Dutch company raised its revenue forecast for 2026 for the second time — and the entire tech world took notice. ASML, the only manufacturer of EUV lithography machines (the high-tech machines that produce modern chips), now expects €43 to €45 billion in revenue for this year. Six months ago, expectations were still at €36 to €40 billion.
The Story Behind It
ASML sits at the source of the global AI boom. Every advanced chip — whether from NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, or Apple — requires ASML machines for production. The company has a global monopoly on EUV technology: no other company in the world can build these precision machines. In the second quarter of 2026, ASML generated €9.3 billion in revenue (analysts expected €8.8 billion), a profit of €2.9 billion (+26% compared to the previous year), and sold 91 lithography systems — 15 more than the previous year.
CEO Christophe Fouquet said in the earnings call: "Demand for advanced chips is so high that we are almost fully booked for 2027." This means: chip manufacturers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are lining up to get these machines.
What This Means for You
If you want to understand where the big money in the AI boom is really flowing, look at the machine makers, not just the chip designers. ASML is the foundation beneath NVIDIA and all others — without ASML, there are no modern chips, without modern chips, there is no AI revolution. Anyone who invested €10,000 in ASML five years ago is now sitting on over €60,000. The stock has risen 60% since the beginning of the year — one of the best performances in the Nasdaq-100.
How Professionals Are Reacting
Hedge funds and institutional investors have massively increased their ASML holdings in the last six months. The company has announced a €12 billion share buyback program through 2028 and raised its dividend by 17%. Analysts from Jefferies, Barclays, and Deutsche Bank see the price target at over $2,000 (currently around $1,830). The reason: ASML benefits from every single AI data center being built worldwide — because these data centers need advanced chips, and these chips need ASML machines.
First Steps for Beginners
If you're just starting to get interested in stocks: ASML is a good example of how to recognize "picks-and-shovels" investments. While everyone talks about NVIDIA (the chip designer), many overlook the company that supplies the machines without which NVIDIA couldn't build its chips. Such "infrastructure investments" are often more stable than the hyped names because they have less competition. ASML has a monopoly — that's rare and valuable. Anyone interested in such companies should ask themselves: Who profits regardless of which chip manufacturer wins? The answer is often the machine maker.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.